Sunday, May 31, 2020

Midas Reviews: Pacific Equity fund Webinar by Aberdeen Standard

Hi friends,

Ever since the previous review post where I call out the mistakes/biases/bullshits in April 2020, I have received quite a few requests to do something like this again. So, here is another one for the views. 

Oh, TLDR; this post won't be as aggressive as the previous one as the speaker this time was way more balanced and provided an objective investment approach to the audience. There are still some shortcomings, but all in all, it was so much better than the previous one. Also, I will be calling Aberdeen Standard as Aberdeen.


I would have to say, I have enjoyed the attention garnered by the post. Especially from financial advisors that tried to defend the views of that webinar (Example: "Oh, different people have different perspectives in finance, fees are not that important".)


They need to know something; there is a difference between perspective and facts. Data are facts. Data have shown that fees hinder performance. Data have shown that passive funds outperform index funds. Intentionally omitting/ignoring these facts shows me that you are simply a bad financial advisor and you should not be doing this job. Just call yourself a salesman. You do not provide quality and sound financial advice for your clients and to the public). 


Let's start the post properly:


This webinar was conducted by Aberdeen Standard to promote their Pacific Equity Fund, an actively-managed fund that focuses on Asian companies. 












They gave a brief introduction of what Aberdeen does, what asset they managed, their AUM, their offices. From that, the audience knows about the relative advantages that Aberdeen possesses and the service that they can offer.



Next, the audience was given a 2020 recap over the events that has happened that has led to the stock market's behavior (namely; Covid-19, Oil price war, Stimulus packages, Trade War Episode 2)

Then a more precise figure about how the market has performed with all these events, in particular, the S&P 500, Europe, emerging markets, and the world index in general.


The speaker started to explain their rationale for focusing on Asia, especially how Asia has good growth potential compared to other more mature and efficient markets. He then elaborated on these rationales (1. Growing middle class - Moving towards a consumer economy, 2. Urbanization - Need for construction materials, construction companies 3. Premiumisation - Increase in GDP per capital would allow for higher standards of living 4. Strong balance sheets - Asian companies have a higher cash ratio and a lower debt ratio compared to their western counterparts 5. Valuation - Asian companies are traded at a lower P/E ratio too)






Lastly, the speaker outlined the investment approach of the fund that he is promoting, which is already hinted at during the starting portions of the webinar (1. They look for companies that are leading the changes in Asia, like consumer, travel, F&B. 2. They look for companies that can scale up quickly by leveraging on digital technologies like Fintech,  gaming, cloud. 3. Tech companies at the forefront of IoT, 5G, big data 4. Suppliers of infrastructural companies)

Now, the most important part, the performance of his fund as compared to the market index. (This is the only part where I find fault in the presentation - that there are no mentions of the fund charges, expense ratio, load charges, management fees. Not sure if it was intentional or not. But fees are still important in determining the actual returns of a fund). So yes, take the next picture with a grain of salt, I don't think the graph is inclusive of all the fund charges (and if you think about it, there are the ILP charges as well)



At the end of the webinar, we were given an opportunity to ask some questions, so naturally, I asked my favourite question: 

In which the speaker replied in a tactful manner, he defined the Asia market as inefficient and that's where active-managed funds would do better (which I find to be speaking half-truth) but sure. Then he moved on to the next questions

The Good:

  • I guess the webinar is definitely useful is providing a different perspective (on how emerging markets can provide additional diversification for your portfolio as they have higher growth potential because of our changing demographics).
  • The speaker provided valuable insights and information without throwing shades at other investment approaches (the speaker in the other webinar should learn a thing or two). Even though in essence, he was still trying to pitch a fund, he did it by focusing on the strengths of the product he was promoting. 
The Bad:
  • The way he answered my question with half-truths wasn't satisfying to me. But I guess he would have to consider his pitch as well. 

Conclusion:
It was refreshing coming out of this webinar as I felt that I have learnt something, rather than being fed up with the behaviour of the speaker. I look forward to hearing from them in the future,


Let this be a lesson to the agents that I have mentioned at the beginning of the post. If you want to defend something, you should do it with proper data or theory, not throw shades at the other party. 


Saturday, May 30, 2020

June 2020 Updates

Hi friends,

Great news! The Circuit Breaker is almost over. I hope that you will not rush out into the streets straight away. I have also realised that this period did not have as much of an impact as I thought it would on my life. Maybe I am already in a circuit breaker before the virus came in. 

Some updates, I have been rejected for a part-time internship, that would mean that there not be a chance to gain working experience during Y4S1. It was a pity as it was a role that I was interested in. Also, the market has increased significantly. I guess that I was wrong and I am now paying the price. 

Now, let's talk about my portfolio:

1. Stashaway (Invested $1,002, current value $1,312.71) 18.25% money-weighted return
2. Stashaway Simple (Invested $9,554, current value $9,606.68) 0.55% return
3. Coasset (Invested $1,000, expected return of $1,090 in 2020)
4. Funding Society (Invested $2,183, current value $1,471)
5. Endowment (Invested $6,000, expected return $6,556.4 in 2022)
6. FSMone - Nikkoam STC Asia REIT ETF (Invested $1,548, current value $1,754) 13.25% return
7 Kristal.AI (Invested $3600, current value $3600) 0% return
8. Singlife Endowment (Invested $5,894, current value $5,897) 0.05% return

Total invested: $28,181

Total Value: $28,311


This would bring my returns to 0.48% (if I include the losses from funding society)

This would bring my returns to 3.37% (if funding society's losses were not included)

I am quite happy with my returns actually as it has finally turned positive (and mostly because my stocks are doing really well, by buying during the dip). This stint with P2P funding has convinced me that I should never put so much money into it. In the future, I shall only put in $1,000 inside. hahaha.

Also, I have added Kristal.AI as a platform for my investment. This is as Stashaway has cut down on the US' market exposure and limited US exposure to health and consumer indexes. I still want to invest in the S&P 500, which is the reason why I will be using Kristal to invest. I will also be DCA-ing into it every month. 

I also hope that the next crash can come faster (If not my maneuver would reflect poorly on myself). Also, in a bear market, the true bottom is not reached until a while later, like 12-18 months. So I believe that we are not at the bottom. 

With that, I hope that you guys will stay safe and keep out of trouble and that you will be fearful when others are greedy, greedy when others are fearful.

Till next time,
Stay vested, stay frugal my friends.

Dionysius

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Finance 201: Different asset classes and their performance in different economic climates



Hi friends,

Welcome to the first part of my Finance 201 series. In the articles that are labeled under this series, I will assume that you already have a basic understanding of different financial instruments (bonds, stocks, ETFs, hedge funds). If not, do take a look at my Finance 101 series.


As the first part of this "higher level" series, I plan to at a closer look at the different portfolios of famous investors and I will be talking about their respective investment approach and their backtested investment returns. To do that, I felt that it is important for us to understand the performance of different asset classes in different economic climates (like recession, bull, or bear market). 


To do that, I will be looking at the correlation coefficient of their returns. For those that don't know what is a correlation coefficient, it is a statistical measure of the strength of the relationship between the relative movements of two variables.  Essentially, if I increase by 10%, you increase by 5%, and if I increase by 5%, you increase by 2.5% and if I decrease by 10%, you decrease by 5%, we would be positively correlated. When I change by a certain percentage, you would also change by a certain percentage. A negative correlation would just mean that if I increase, you decrease, if I decrease, you increase. This correlation coefficient is also a measure of a linear relationship.


The values of the correlation coefficient are from -1 to 1. -1/+1 would mean a negative/ positive perfect correlation. While 0 would indicate no correlation. 


First off, we will be taking a look at the long-term correlations between the assets (1960 to 2017), then we will take a look at the correlations in different specific economic climates. For the bull market climate, we shall look at 2010 to 2019. For the bear market climate, we shall look at 2007 to 2009 (Great Financial Crisis anyone?). I was hoping to find more data for the other recessions like the dotcom bubble and all that, but I can't seem to find it. Do let me know if you have access to any studies on it. 



Long-term correlation (1960-2017):


Across the board, with no distinction between upmarket and downmarket: 

Looking at the highlighted portion for Table 3 Part A,
Real Estates (Global Real Estates, Commercial, Residential, etc) has quite a strong positive correlation (0.73) with equities (stocks). 
Non-government bonds (think commercial bonds) has a mild positive correlation (0.52) with stocks Government bonds have a weak positive correlation (0.27) with stocks 
Commodities (Rare metals like Gold, Silver, Platinum) have no correlation (-0.04) with stocks

Looking at the downmarket (Where the price of the asset ends the year lower than the start of the year) highlighted in red, table 3 part B:

Real Estates have a strong positive correlation (0.76) with stocks
Non-government bonds have a weak positive correlation (-0.36) with stocks 
Government bonds have a weak negative correlation (-0.15) with stocks
Commodities have a mild negative correlation (-0.46) with stocks 

Hence, we can see that "safe haven" assets like bonds and commodities do exhibit different behavior in a downmarket compared to the average performance. They move into more negative correlations with stocks

Looking at the upmarket (Where the price of the asset ends the year higher than the start of the year) highlighted in blue, table 3 part B:

Real estates have a mild positive correlation (0.58) with stocks
Non-government bonds have a mild positive correlation (0.48) with stocks
Government bonds have a weak positive correlation (0.31) with stocks
Commodities have no correlation (-0.07) with stocks 

Hence, we can see that in an upmarket, the assets are more in line with long-term behaviors in table 3 part A. Except for Real estates, which moved towards a more negative correlation with stocks. 

Summary for this part (+ means more positive correlation with stocks, - means more negative correlations with stocks and 0 means almost no change):

                                   |Upmarket | Downmarket|
Real estates                 |       -       |         0         |
Nongovernment bonds  |      0        |         -         |
Government bonds       |      0        |         -         |
Commodity                  |      0        |         -         |

#ADMIRE MY GHETTO TABLE#

These are the long-term performance of these assets. 



Here we can see that the 20-years overlapping average correlation between the different asset classes with stocks and bonds.

We will now look at the bull-market correlations from 2010-2019:




We can make the following observations:
Investment-grade bonds have a weak negative correlation (-0.22) with US stocks
Commodities have a mild positive correlation (0.57) with US stocks
Global (All stocks in the world) stocks have a strong positive correlation (0.97) with US stocks
International (All stocks in the world except the US) stocks have a strong positive correlation (0.87) with US stocks
REITs have a mild positive correlation (0.65) with US stocks

Here we can see that this is in contrast with our previous data. This is where I will need to clarify that the 2010 - 2019 is actually an anomaly, as it was the longest bull-market that we have ever seen. So you will need to take note of this observation. Furthermore, an upmarket year in the first part means that a rise of 0.1% would still constitute as an upmarket. While 2010-2019 was upmarket on steroids, with consecutive upmarkets. Hence, I felt a need to look specifically at a bull-market period rather than an upmarket year

Let us take a look at the performance in turbulent times (2007-2009) during the Great Financial Crisis (This is different from the down market, as it represents a significant downmarket. This is in contrast to part one where a 0.1% drop in market price between the start and the end of the year would mean a downmarket)


We can make the following observations: 
International stocks have a strong positive correlation with US stocks
Emerging market stocks have a strong positive correlation with US stocks
REITs have a strong positive correlation with US stocks
Commodities have a mild positive correlation with US stocks
High yield bonds have a strong positive correlation with US stocks
International bonds have a mild positive correlation with US stocks

Hence, we can see this dragging effect of stocks for the majority of the financial instruments especially in times of volatility, with all of them having a positive correlation with stocks. 

I honestly did not expect this behavior. However, there is a limitation as there are no correlations between stocks and US bonds... 

With that, I hope that you can have a good understanding of the different correlations of different assets in different economic conditions. It was certainly beneficial to me. hahaha

With that, 
I end today's topic. 

Stay vested, Stay frugal my friends,

Dionysius

Sources:
https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/mutual-funds/resources/interactive-tools/asset-class-correlation-map
https://www.vanguard.co.uk/documents/adv/literature/dynamic-correlations.pdf
https://academic.oup.com/raps/advance-article/doi/10.1093/rapstu/raz010/5640504

Saturday, May 23, 2020

Finance 101: What is a portfolio?

Hi friends, 

I bet that you have heard of it before. "I have a portfolio of blah blah blah", or "How big is your portfolio?" So... What is this "portfolio" that everyone who is investing/ planning their finances is talking about? Today I shall be tackling this question:

Definition:
A portfolio is a grouping of financial assets such as stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies and cash equivalents, as well as their fund counterparts, including mutual, exchange-traded and closed funds. A portfolio can also consist of non-publicly tradable securities, like real estate, art, and private investments. - Investopedia

A portfolio refers to a collection of investments or financial assets held by an individual, investment company, financial institution or hedge fund. This grouping of financial assets can include everything from gold and property to stocks, bonds, and cash equivalents. In essence, an investment portfolio acts as a big briefcase-carrying all of these financial assets. - Capital

These are the essential points.

1. Group of financial assets (Financial instruments that can be anything that we discussed and more, like real estates, arts, whiskey, etc)

2. Held by an individual, company, funds. 


For today, we will be talking about your individual portfolio. As per the definition, your portfolio is a combination of the different financial instruments that you are holding. A portfolio is also something that you should build based on your preferences. It should be in line with your investment beliefs and your risk appetite

Here are some of the things you should consider before setting off to build your portfolio:

1. What is your risk tolerance? 
How much gain/loss are you able to tolerate? Are you ok with a portfolio that can give you large returns and losses?

2. What is your time horizon?
A longer time horizon would mean that you can create a portfolio that has a higher potential for appreciations. 

3. What assets are you comfortable/ familiar with?
If you are competent and have a lot of experience with a particular financial instrument, you can consider having more of your portfolio allocation to the instrument that you are familiar with. 

Here are some of the financial instruments that you can have in your portfolio. We have actually gone through the majority of them in the other Finance 101 articles:

1. Stocks, etfs, mutual funds, index funds, Reits 
2. Bonds, bond funds
3. Gold, precious metals
4. Crypto (Bitcoin, ethereum)
5. Real estates 
6. Other financial instruments like alcohol, art, etc
7. Commodities like copper, steel, oil
8. Insurance

As we are talking about the personal portfolio, in which I would assume that you do not have the need to invest in commodities, alcohol, art etc. We will focus on 1,2,3,4,5,8 I will analyse it from the POV of a) Aggressive investors (with a long time horizon) b) Conservative investor (with a shorter time horizon) c) Investor who is looking to pass intergenerational wealth d) ultra-aggressive investor

Do note that the allocations are just for example. You should do your own research. 

a) Aggressive Investor (For those who wants :
1. Stocks (85% in etf, individual stocks)
2. Bonds (0%)
3. Precious metals (4% in gold)
4. Crypto (1%, treat it as a gamble)
5. Real Estates (5%)
8. Insurance (5%, to protect against sudden events)

b) Conservative Investor (For those who wants to have some returns but cannot take too many losses)
1. Stocks (20% in etfs, and reits etfs)
2. bonds (60% in bond funds)
3. Precious metals (5% in gold)
4. Crypto (0%)
5. Real Estates (5%)
8. Insurance (10%)

c) Generational Wealth Investors (For those who wishes to pass to their offsprings without incurring taxes)

We do not have inheritance tax in Singapore. But do know that if you pass on properties, your offsprings might need to pay property taxes on it, or pay for the maintenance fees. 

Hence, you might want to consider holding on to stocks and bonds. 

d) Ultra-aggressive Investors (me, with about 30-40 years of investing)
1. Stocks (95% in etf, individual stocks/ reits)
2. Bonds (0%)
3. Precious metals (0%)
4. Crypto (0%)
5. Real Estates 
(0%)
8. Insurance (5%, to protect against sudden events)

I will reiterate this again. Your portfolio would be reflective of your investment beliefs. Your portfolio should be tailored to your needs. Of course, with a portfolio, you should always look at it every now and then to rebalance it. The rebalancing would allow your portfolio realigned with your chosen allocations. This rebalancing should be around once per 3 months. 

As always, do take note that the allocations are just examples, you should always do your own research before making any financial decisions. 

Also, now that we have settled a majority of the financial instruments, I will be moving on to the most famous financial portfolios that are held by famous investors like Warren Buffett, Ray Dalios, etc. It will be named "Finance 201". I am an Engineer for goodness sake. How creative do you think I am :')  Don't worry. Finance 101 series will still run on, just keep sending in request so that I know to explain some of the basic terms that I have used in my posts

With that, 
I end today's topic

Stay vested, Stay frugal my friends,
Dionysius





Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Finance 101: What is a Bond?

Hi friends, 

Bond, James Bond


Up to this point, I hope that you have benefitted from this series. 
I have also benefitted from the series as I learned about infographics design for this series and reinforced my financial knowledge as well. Do let me know if you have any ideas for Finance 101 or any other series that I can do. 

With that out of the way, let's look at the financial instrument that allows you to be a loan shark - Bonds. So, what is a bond? 


Definition:

A bond is a fixed income instrument that represents a loan made by an investor to a borrower (typically corporate or governmental). A bond could be thought of as an I.O.U. between the lender and borrower that includes the details of the loan and its payments. - Investopedia

Bonds are debt instruments. When you buy a bond, you are lending money to the company or government institution issuing the bond for a fixed rate of return. -DBS


The keywords are:

1. Loan/debt
2. From company/government to investor
3. Fixed-rate of return

Essentially, you are lending a sum of money to a company or government, in which you will receive interests annually for the period and you will receive the sum of money that you lent at the end of the period. The entity that issued the bonds would use the money and invest in projects/infrastructures that they believe will have a better return compared to the interest they pay you. (i.e, I borrow $5,000 at 1% interest, to invest for a return of 8%. Profit for me 7%)


Furthermore, in the event where the entity is unable to pay its debt (default), bondholders have higher priority over stockholders over the liquidated asset of that company. When the company makes money, bondholders are also prioritised over stockholders in receiving the money. 


"That's great! Why does everyone not rush to bonds?" Good question, that's because historically, bonds have an average return of 5% but stocks have an average return of 10%. Furthermore, low risk doesn't mean no risk. There are cases where companies or countries that have defaulted on their loans (Does the name Hyflux ring a bell?).


Hence, bonds as a financial instrument would be suited for a conservative investment approach. This is the reason why we are recommended to allocate more of our portfolio to bonds as we age. Furthermore, bonds are income-generating assets rather than growth assets. Hence, if your desire is to have passive income, you may look at bonds as a valid option. 


BUT, if you would refer to my 4% Rule article, you would know that bonds are unable to last you that long into retirement based on historical data. Furthermore, Warran Buffett has not incorporated bonds into his portfolio at his age as well. So you might want to take that into consideration. 


After this long period of voicing my opinion, let's look at the advantages and disadvantages of owning bonds. 


Advantages: 

1. Safe and consistent income - due to the interest rate (coupon) that you will receive
2. Higher on the priority list in the event of liquidation
3. Passive income 
4. Diversify your portfolio as it is a different financial product from stocks

Disadvantages:

1. Lower returns as well
2. Default is still probable
3. Some bonds are not available to retail investors (Some bonds are too high in value, $250,000 for one bond)

These are the priority of bonds payout (A higher priority would mean that you would be paid first in the event of liquidation) 

1. Senior secured bonds (secured means that that debt is backed with collateral)
2. Senior unsecured bonds 
3. Junior Subordinated bonds
4. Guaranteed and insured bonds (The guaranty is from a third-party, but not 100% insured.)
5. Convertible bonds (Can be converted to common stock)

How to find the right bond?
1. Coupon Rate: It is the interest rate paid on the bond (3% of $1000 would be $30)
2. The seniority of the bond: If you have higher priority if the company is liquidated
3. Outlook of the company: If the company is over-leveraged on debt, income statement etc. 
4. Inflation trend: If inflation is at 3% and your bond has an interest rate of 3%, your effective return is 0
5. Liquidity of the bond: If you require money in a short amount of time, are you able to redeem the bond for cash? You can look at the daily trading volume of that bond. 

Thoughts and comments:
As bonds are currently not in my portfolio, I am not that familiar. However, if you wish to diversify your risk, you might want to consider using bond ETFs which has a lower chance of losing your money. 



Sources:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bond.asp
https://www.dbs.com.sg/personal/investments/fixed-income/understanding-bonds
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121815/understand-security-types-corporate-bonds.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/09/bear-on-bonds.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/07/fixedincome.asp

Saturday, May 16, 2020

Mid-May update

Hi friends,

At the beginning of the month of May, or in my previous update post, I have predicted that the stock market would be falling soon. During these two weeks, even with an increase in the amount of unemployment in the US, the stock market has continued to defy expectations and climbed even higher.

In view of that, I have decided to withdraw the profits that I have made during this period as I foresee that there can be another fall coming. Not to worry, as I will still continue to DCA into it. I am doing this as I want to lower my entry price if the stock market is going in the direction that I am predicting.

But yes, do not take what I am saying as the truth. I do not have a magical crystal ball that tells me when and what stocks to buy. I am just following what my knowledge is telling me; that the stock market and the economy are highly related and hence, a fall should be coming soon.

I wrote the above last week. Turns out, I was right. 

Let's talk about the changes that happened:

1. I started my internship at an urban farming start-up
2. My university has approved my Covid-19 support grant application, and loan me $1000 to tide me through this period (thank God)
3. I got rejected for a part-time internship with Unilever
4. The stock market rally ran out of steam and there was a market drop of around 4-5% and rebound 3% a few days later
5. Stashaway changed the portfolio approach. 

Let me elaborate on point 4 and 5:

Point 4:
Ever since the 30+% drop 19th Feb to Mid March, there was a rally of 30% gain from Mid March to Mid May, bringing a loss of 13.48% from the all-time-high.  But suddenly, the rally seemed to have run out of steam and we can see that the index has started to go sideways. Now everyone is saying that a second drop is coming (Which I agree). 

I have managed to take out 80% of my stocks portfolio one day before the drop occurred and transferred them to a money market fund (All part of my plan). I also plan to continue DCA-ing. It is somewhat kinda surprising that the day I pulled out is the day that the dropped occurred. So yes, I was lucky. Please do not follow my example. '

Point 5:

Stashaway has changed its portfolio allocation:
1. Equities (US) 39% - Small Cap, Healthcare, Consumer
2. Equities (International) 33% - Asia ex-Japan, Emerging Market, China (tech)
3. Real Estate 7% Global ex-US REITs
4. Commodities (Gold) 20%
5. Cash (SGD) 1%

This is causing me a bit of an annoyance as I still wanted to be invested in the US large-cap equities. I guess I will have to maintain a large-cap exposure through another platform. But yes, other than that, I will continue my relationship with Stashaway, for those interested, you can look for me for a referral to get $10,000 free management for 6 months together. 

So my investing direction has changed:

1. I will be investing $600 into Stashaway monthly, while using another platform (Kristal), I will be investing around $200-300 into the S&P 500. (I believe that we will be falling further)


2. I will still be trying to time the market for the SG Reits ETF. I already have a target price which I will be entering. 

With that, 
I end today's topic. 

Stay vested, Stay frugal my friends,

Dionysius



Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Finance 101: What is a Real Estate

Hi friends, 

Today I will be writing about something that is on a lot of our minds in Singapore. Similar to REITs, just that it is something on a personal level and not managed by anyone. It is real estate. 

So...... just some fun facts:
1. Almost half of Singaporeans (2.18 million out of 5 million) are in the world's richest 10%, 226,000 (5%) people are in the 1%
2. For the year 2019, the average Singaporean has US$300,000 in their name, with US$150,000 in real estates
3. The median has about US$100,000. 

As you can already infer, with our small land-size, if we were to include the house that we are living in into our asset calculations, a lot of Singaporeans would be classified as rich on a global standard. The average price of private property in the city is US$874,372. The average of public housing (3-rooms) is around US$200,000. Hence, it would be correct if I were to say that majority of our wealth is locked up in properties. 

But, I would say something that goes against what you believe in. You can only treat something as an asset if it brings you income (by increasing in value and you selling it or by renting it out). Hence, if you are not going to sell/rent the house that you are currently staying in, it is not an asset. That is your personal property.

For subsequent parts of this post, I will be treating real estate/properties as an asset, that means, you are renting it away or planning to sell it. These can be commercial properties (like those shop units that you can rent/sell to shops/offices) or residential properties (those that you rent out to tenants or sell) or industrial properties (warehouses, factories)

So.. What is a real estate?
Investment real estate is real estate that generates income or is otherwise intended for investment purposes rather than as a primary residence. It is common for investors to own multiple pieces of real estate, one of which serves as a primary residence while the others are used to generate rental income and profits through price appreciation. - Investopedia

So essentially:
1. Real Estate is an investment only if you are selling it or to rent it out 
2. If you are using it for residential purposes, it is not an investment.

So now that we know what a real estate is, let us take a look at the advantages and disadvantages of it and compare it to REITs as well:

Advantages of owning real estates:
1. Leverage (Purchasing a Real Estate would often mean that you can borrow money from the bank. For example, a property is valued at $1,000,000, you would just need to pay the downpayment of 10% to own it.)
2. Stability (This is especially evident in Singapore. Due to our small size and relatively dense populations, it would be safe to assume that there will always be a demand for housing. Hence, the prices of properties in Singapore have been steadily increasing. Even for public-housings)
3. Cashflow (Imagine just sitting there and receiving rent payment from your tenants. Quick passive income)
4. Diversification (Historically, real estates have shown to be negatively correlated to other financial instruments)

Disadvantages of owning real estates:
1. Taxes and transactions cost (Property taxes, stamp duties, income taxes from rents, ABSD)
2. Liquidity (It takes a while for properties to be liquidated. This is especially significant if you require money in a short span of time.)
3. Tenants and ongoing expenses (People that you rent to may default on their rents due, plus you are responsible for the maintenance cost of the property)
4. Fluctuations in market (Economic conditions would affect the market demands and hence prices of your properties)
5. High entry barrier  (You can't buy Real Estate with a $1000 capital, but you can buy other financial instruments with that sum of money) 

Now you would question: Wow, Real Estates sounds like REITs. So let's compare the two of them. 

Real Estates better than REITs:
1. You make your own decisions on where or what properties to invest (REITs decide on what properties to invest in)
2. Higher leverage compared to REITs (In Singapore, REITs are only able to have a leverage ratio of 50%)
3. Better cashflow (You receive rent every month, rather than the quarterly dividends paid by REITs
4. No management fees (You have to pay for the professional management of the properties)

REITs better than Real Estates:
1. Better liquidity (REITs are traded on stock exchanges, hence, liquidation is within a day)
2. More diversification (REITs normally owns more than one property. This higher number of holdings would mean a better diversification.)
3. Lower barrier to entry (REITs cost lesser than Real Estates to own)
4. Professional management (There are people managing the properties for you)

Criteria to look for in a good real estate:
1. Location (This is important if you wish to rent out your properties)
2. The future prospects of the property area (Are there going to be amenities, malls, business development, that are going to build in that area? If you can foresee that the area has a high demand in the future, it has high appreciation potential)
3. Timing (This is important for properties, as property prices are still tied to economic conditions)

Thoughts and comments:
I believe that Real Estates do play a significant portion in our financial portfolio. Especially in Singapore where we have such a small land supply. However, due to the high barrier of entry and the property taxes, I am unable to afford them in my portfolio at the moment. I believe that as I get old and want a conservative approach to my investments, I would move more portions of my portfolio to real estate.  

Personal Portfolio:
$0 in real estates

With that, 
I end today's topic. 

Stay vested, Stay frugal my friends,
Dionysius























































































Sources:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/785044/singapore-number-of-millionaires/
https://www.businessinsider.sg/half-of-singapore-is-in-the-worlds-richest-10-and-226000-people-are-among-the-elite-1
https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/singapore-worlds-second-most-expensive-housing-market-cbre-report
https://www.hdb.gov.sg/cs/infoweb/residential/buying-a-flat/resale/resale-statistics#pdurrentresalestatsmedianresalepricesforregisteredresaleapplications13838002997481
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/realestate.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/072314/investing-real-estate-versus-reits.asp